Whether to draft a high school or college player this year?

The Toronto Blue Jays hold the 19th pick in this year’s MLB draft and won’t be drafting again until the third round as George Springer signed this off-season after declining a qualifying offer from the Houston Astros and the Jays choosing their second to lose as compensation .

While it’s never easy to predict which prospects will be on the podium on day one, there are a few things Ross Atkins and Scouting Director Shane Farrell should consider when they are on the clock.

Looking at various lists of potential buyers, there are a few players that are grabbing the attention of fans and most likely the Blue Jays scouting staff this year. There are a couple of pitchers the club could chase who are both high school and college aged, while some outfielders might be in the mix as well, as well as some infielder if the front office wants to look like that. Given that players have never gone where they ranked in any draft (and no ranking system between sites or different sources is ever the same), it makes sense that there is some give and take when there is It’s about who the Blue Jays will pick their top pick this year with.

There is no doubt that drafting a high school player is a high risk, high reward scenario that requires a lot of development and a little bit of luck to find a game changer when you are only 18. Whether they grow up to superstars in the major leagues or migrate for years in the minor leagues, dragging a high school gamer over a college athlete is risky because there are a lot more questions than answers, and that rightly.

One aspect to consider when drafting a high school player is college engagements, a notion that bit the Blue Jays in 2011 and 2013 when the first players in those years under Alex Anthopoulos (Tyler Beede and Phil Bickford) decided to go to college ball instead of turning pro. While neither player really developed into game changers (until now), there is a risk that general managers need to consider when calling up a non-college player. If a player really believes in their skills, after two years in college a player could go from a 19th pick to a 1-5 pick and earn millions more in bonus / signature money if they can improve their game; a risk that some high school players are okay with.

The Toronto Blue Jays hold 19th selection in this year’s MLB draft, with plenty of good options in both high school and college that should be on the board if Ross Atkins and Co. climb the podium.

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Whether for financial motivation or just for the general interest, high school players can get into other sports and go in a different direction overall, a notion Oakland Athletics with Kyler Murray knows all too well. This can also be seen with some players who rank near the Blue Jays Draft picks, like Bubba Chandler (soccer) and Will Taylor (soccer and wrestling), who might spurn the team if they feel like their others are Sports are their higher calling.

College players tend to be more defined as they have at least two years of experience in advanced competition and play a more defined role when it comes to being starter versus relief or middle infielder versus third base. Plans can change after they’re drafted, of course, a good example is Austin Martin who was drafted shortstop but is getting regular outfield reps in AA, but an older college player’s progression can answer more questions than a younger high -School players.

Does that mean a college player who was highly selected in the MLB draft is going to be a superstar? Of course not, and the Blue Jays know that all too well with the likes of Max Pentecost and Deck McGuire, both of whom failed to live up to the potential of a first-round draft pick. One would hope the transition from college ball to A / AA ball would go smoothly, but sometimes the better competition gets the most out of a player and that’s not intended.

Another thing to consider is that high school players sometimes need an over-slot value to sign, especially for players in the higher rounds with college engagements at top schools like Mississippi or Vanderbilt. This isn’t necessarily aimed solely at high school students (again Austin Martin and his signing on the slot), but it’s more important in trying to convince a college gamer not to go to secondary school and get promoted by starting the farm system by offering a little more money to sweeten the business.

Since the Blue Jays don’t have a second round draft pick, they could pick a high school student in 19th place and offer a little extra cash based on those savings, or pick some potential younger players further down the draft board and offer above average convince them not to go to high school (see, for example, the Baltimore Orioles and their design last year). Another risky move is that players may not even sign up with the expanded cash offering, but one that can offer some depth and potential top future prospects if the stars match.

Historically, Ross Atkins has used his top picks in every one of his drafts as general manager of the Jays on a college player, except in 2018 where he went with Texan Jordan Groshans, who is now the third-placed candidate for the Jays organization.

Logan Warmoth (2017) hasn’t made it into the Major League yet, while TJ Zeuch has jumped between AAA and the Major Leagues in 2016 for the last two seasons. The 2019 election Alek Manoah is currently in the starting rotation and is well placed to start the year, while Austin Martin is the organization’s top 2020 pick at # 2 and in overall baseball at # 16 (for those of you who who collect points at home).

One final tactic the Blue Jays might consider is picking the best player on the board, which makes sense if a top 10 player slips down the board, much like Martin dropped to 5th in last year’s draft . Given the amount of time and energy teams across the league devote to scouting and analyzing players, getting the team off their roster would be a crazy prospect, but it certainly has and could have happened before happen again.

Overall, there will be pros and cons for whoever the Blue Jays choose with their top picks this year. I’d honestly prefer them to go with a college pitcher, similar to how they chose Manoah in 2019, or go with an outfielder considering the lack of depth in the minor leagues. The Blue Jays have a stacked infield with a view of the entire farm system and some hot prospect catchers in AAA and AA so I think it makes sense to add to the pitching corps or the outfield.

Who do you think the Blue Jays should be drafting / targeting in this year’s MLB draft?

source https://collegeeducationnewsllc.com/whether-to-draft-a-high-school-or-college-player-this-year/