As Salem and the country emerge from the pandemic, employers are rising to fill vacant positions. But changes in the workforce mean that finding a job may not be as easy as it used to be.
Many employers in the area are trying to keep their employees busy as the pandemic restrictions are lifted and are struggling to fill vacancies.
This is partly because employers are now trying to hire everyone at once, just as companies have had to close at once.
However, there is a long-term trend that is affecting the number of people available to fill vacancies and the labor force participation rate is falling. A person takes part in working life when they are employed or looking for work.
The labor force participation of men in the US has been falling for decades. Job offshoring and automation resulted in lower wages for men with low skills and low education.
So some men leave working life. Since the early 1960s, male participation has declined by 17%.
Women have also dropped out.
The female participation rate (defined as employed or jobseekers aged 16 and over, divided by the non-institutionalized civilian population and expressed as a percentage) peaked in 1999 and has slowly declined since then. (See grafic)
To understand this decline, let’s briefly examine the history of women and work.
In the early 20th century, about 20% of young unmarried women were working and often left work after marriage. This situation was the norm until about the 1930s for at least three reasons.
One was cultural. Women just didn’t work outside the home, especially unmarried women. There was also a shortage of jobs “suitable” for women, and most women had no education beyond high school.
From the 1930s to the 1970s, cultural attitudes towards women working outside the home changed, especially among married women. As the service sectors of the economy grew, more jobs were deemed suitable for women and women began to pursue post-secondary education.
The labor force participation of women, even women with young children, began to rise, peaking around 60% in 1999. Then it slowly began to sink.
This situation is unique in the USA. (See chart) The employment rate of women in other countries has increased, similar to the US, but not decreased.
Women’s participation in the labor force has decreased in the US, while it has increased in other high-income countries (source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development)
Why the decline in the US?
The reason is not a subtle one. Other industrialized countries have more family-friendly labor policies, especially with regard to childcare. For example, the government subsidizes childcare in the UK, where working parents of preschoolers have 30 hours of free care per week. Canada subsidizes childcare within some relatively generous income limits.
State-subsidized childcare was once a national policy in the United States. The federal government funded childcare centers so women could work in factories during World War II. The program ended in 1946 and the women were encouraged to return home and look after their children.
In 1971 the US came close to a national childcare policy. Congress passed the Comprehensive Child Development Act, which would have established a national network of child care centers. President Richard Nixon vetoed the law. The history of the bill and the reasons for the veto are complex, but the most commonly cited reason is that it was too “communist” as the Cold War was in full swing. For a detailed look at the bill, its history, and the reasons it didn’t go into effect, see The Politics of Daycare, a University of Wisconsin research paper published in 1976.
Pandemic business and school closings have made the situation worse for women with children. Daycare centers took on many rule changes to keep children, staff and parents safe, and many facilities were closed.
In August 2020, the Salem Reporter described the dilemma with which many parents were confronted in an article: “Even before the pandemic, childcare is becoming increasingly less available and more expensive in Salem.”
The labor force participation of men in the US has been falling for decades, while women have increasingly found work. (Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
As a result, the participation of women in the labor force continued to decline during the pandemic. In June 2021, U.S. women’s participation was about 1 million lower than before the pandemic.
The information for Oregon is not yet entirely reliable. By the end of the year, the numbers will be cross-checked against statistical models and it will give a better picture of what happened to the workforce in Oregon during the pandemic.
Why is that a problem?
It is a problem because women with work help save families from poverty. In 2019, households with only one employee had a poverty rate of 13.6%. With two workers in the household, the poverty rate was 2.4%.
Employers in the area would have a much larger labor supply if the female labor force participation in the Salem area were the same today as it was in 1999 – an additional 4,000 women would be available to fill vacancies. And if the participation rate for women were the same as that for men, 21,000 more women would be employed or available for work.
In addition, paid women have contributed to economic growth. Janet Yellen, current Treasury Secretary, estimates that if the participation of women were equal to that of men, the US gross domestic product would increase by 5%.
The decline in the labor force participation of women and men is likely to continue, detrimental not only to personal well-being, but also to the well-being of families and the nation as a whole, with no action taken by the private or public sectors or both.
Some large private employers have increased. That makes me think of the company-sponsored daycare center in Beaverton. However, these efforts make a small dent in a big problem.
Pam Ferrara of the Willamette Workforce Partnership continues a regular column on local business topics. She can be reached at [email protected]
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source https://collegeeducationnewsllc.com/column-employers-around-salem-likely-to-face-continuing-challenges-filling-jobs/
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